Saturday, January 13, 2007

Addicks have only 2% chance of avoiding drop

Charlton have only a two per cent chance of avoiding relegation according to an analysis published by the Fink Tank in The Times today. Charlton slumped from seventeenth in a 92-team table when Dowie took charge and now rank 27th.

The analysis states, 'The number of shots that hit the target against Charlton has not really changed, but the number of those that go in the net has gone up dramatically. At the other end, the Charlton attack is getting shots on target without scoring as often.' Read the full article at: Relegation

The Fink Tank hedge their bets on today's match giving a 38 per cent chance of a home win, a 34 per cent of an away win and a 28 per cent chance of a draw. I am going for a 1-1 draw, although I won't be at the match because of continuing 60th birthday celebrations.

Leamington, who have taken 65 points out of a possible 69 this season, winning all except two league matches, face a crucial match against Causeway United at the New Windmill Ground. If they at least draw, they will have recorded the longest unbeaten run in the history of the Midland Alliance.


Blogger New York Addick said...

I prefer to use Betfair to judge our survival probability. If the Fink Tank was correct, there would be an opportunity for someone to push down the Betfair market and profit from the arbitrage. Even after today's defeat, Betfair still suggests a 10% chance of survival which 'feels' about right to me.

5:36 PM  
Blogger Wyn Grant said...

I would agree that the 2% figure seems too pessimistic even after today's defeat, but not so long ago I thought that we had a 40% chance of staying up.

6:18 PM  

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