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Saturday, October 15, 2005

A hard match to call: Fulham preview

Fans who have fallen into the trap of reading results off the table think it should be an easy three points for the Addicks against Fulham on Monday night. But although Fulham no longer have Van der Sar, who prevented us from winning at Craven Cottage last season, they still have some good players. And it would be just our luck for Claus Jensen, whose removal to the big riverside club has never been fully explained, to score against us. Fulham's recent results have not perhaps reflected their performance.

Hence, Warwick University's Decision Technology Group is stumped about whether to call for a home win (39% chance) or away win (36% chance), although they think a draw is the least likely outcome. For me that seems the most likely result in this London derby but my predictions record this season has been awful.

I would anticipate a 4-5-1 and no changes in the midfield with Thomas and Murphy on song down the wings. The defence raises more interesting questions. Young is an obvious pick and I would keep Perry and the Herminator in central defence, although Powell on the left has more of a question mark over him. He has been excellent, but tends to tire and make errors towards the end of the game. Spector, having played his first full international for the USA, should at least be on the bench. Bothroyd has only really excelled against lower division teams, but given the alternatives, might deserve a cameo role.

The big question is who will be in goal? Anders or Deano? Curbs said he would have to do some hard thinking about that over the weekend and reports suggest that neither Tracy Kiely nor Deano's dad know, indicating that the decision will not be taken until Monday. Anders did make a mistake at West Brom, but Deano is not perfect. However, he is a firm favourite with the fans. I'm glad it's not a decision I have to make.

However, I do think it is important we don't lose Anders, even though Myhre is clearly an excellent back up. Andersen has shown that he is good enough for the Premiership and could attract interest elsewhere.

Recalling his days as a non-league footballer, my father always used to say that there was something odd about works teams and they were always hard to play against in the sense that their level of performance was more unpredictable than other sides. The Harrods works team has always been a bit of a bogey side for us and the officials often seem to be anticipating a Christmas hamper in some of their decisions. It's going to be a tense 94 minutes.

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